Most experts in the industry and heads of machinery manufacturing enterprises agree that the basic view on the operation situation of the machinery industry this year is: demand slows down and transformation is forced; steady progress is made, and the situation is basically expected; next year, the situation is still severe.
The machinery manufacturing industry is a traditional and cutting-edge industry, and it is also a typical midstream manufacturing industry. Its investment product attributes are very clear, and it is closely related to downstream fixed asset investment including real estate, manufacturing, and public infrastructure construction.
Due to the influence of these three sectors this year, the machinery manufacturing industry is still dominated by structural investment opportunities. Our reporter learned from the China Machinery Industry Federation that the growth rate of production and sales of the machinery industry in 2014 will be between 10% and 15%, and the profit growth is expected to be around 10%.
Most experts in the industry and heads of machinery manufacturing companies agree that the basic view on the operation situation of the machinery industry this year is: demand slows down and transformation is forced; progress is made in stability, but the situation is basically expected; next year, the situation is still severe.
Industry experts reminded machinery manufacturing companies that, from the appearance, the decline of the machinery industry in the past two years is due to insufficient demand and overcapacity, but this is only a superficial cause, and the more essential reason is that my country’s economic development stage has undergone profound changes, but The industry development model has not been able to change accordingly.
There are common problems in accounts receivable
By the end of the year, Zhang Jie (a pseudonym), a machinery manufacturer in Shandong, was busy collecting accounts again. Unlike previous years, the accounts were collected earlier this year than in previous years.
"You can't do anything if you don't urge, others owe me money, I owe others money, some projects are advanced to me, and I also advanced to others, all in one chain." Zhang Jie said.
Zhang Jie told our reporter that this year’s machinery manufacturing environment is not very good. “As far as I know, some companies have continued the decline in income last year, various expenses have risen, and there has been an increase in receivables. In addition to me, there should be Companies are experiencing difficulties in capital turnover. In short, the decline in corporate profits is common."
Our reporter learned from the report of the China Machinery Industry Federation that due to the incompatibility of operating status and scale of some major enterprises, various expenses remain high, and the current cost and expenses continue to increase, resulting in a decline in business costs and operating income. Out of sync.
Industry experts believe that many changes are taking place in the development stage, industry structure, industrial form, demand structure, and profit model of the machinery industry; the differentiation between industries and enterprises has increased significantly.
Among them, the growth rate of demand has slowed down, the management's intention to stabilize growth has been highlighted, and the pattern of stable growth and simultaneous transformation in the later period has emerged. The industry profit growth rate began to decline after a relatively high growth at the beginning of the year, mainly due to slower demand growth and rising cost rigidity. As the base of scale increases, it will be more difficult to achieve growth, and the pressure from the market to transform and upgrade the industry will continue.
When it comes to accounts receivable, Zhang Jie is full of complaints, "Accounts receivable is a common feature of the industry, it can be allowed to exist, but it cannot be allowed to develop, because its development is not good."
Zhang Jie said that machinery manufacturing companies usually adopt the installment payment method. Once the machinery industry companies form accounts receivable under the credit sales model, the total accounts receivable is larger than that of other industries.
“Machine manufacturing companies, especially large equipment manufacturing companies, generally account for a larger proportion of accounts receivable in total assets. The proportion of corporate accounts receivable in total assets reflects the company’s operating risks. The larger the ratio, the greater the company’s The greater the business risk." Zhang Jie said.
In addition, Zhang Jie also told our reporter that the equipment of machinery manufacturing enterprises has the characteristics of long production cycle, long transportation time, complicated equipment installation, and long product operation time. "The complexity of mechanical equipment products determines the length of the payback period. The payback period of accounts receivable in the construction machinery industry and the internal combustion engine industry with lower unit price of equipment is generally within one year, and the unit price of equipment is higher and the production cycle of electrical equipment is longer. , The payback period of accounts receivable in the CNC machine tool industry is generally between 1 and 3 years. The long recovery time of accounts receivable increases the risk of corporate accounts receivable recovery."
change in demand patterns
Cai Weici, executive vice chairman of the China Machinery Industry Federation, said that the situation of comprehensively deepening reforms puts forward higher requirements on the response capabilities of machinery companies. "Let the market play a decisive role in the allocation of resources", which not only contains unlimited opportunities for machinery enterprises, but also increases the responsibility of self-risking. A considerable number of companies that do not adapt to the new situation of reform will be eliminated, and machinery companies must greatly enhance their crisis awareness.
Cai Weici believes that the demand environment for mechanical products next year will be difficult to expect to be looser than this year. The slowdown in demand for mechanical products and the rapid expansion of production capacity and the concentrated release of contradictions continue to rise; the severity of this situation and its impact on the economic operation next year The negative impact must be adequately estimated.
Cai Weici predicts that next year's machinery industry's production and sales growth rate will be about 8%, the profit growth rate is expected to be about 10%, and the export growth rate is estimated to be about 6%.
Cai Weici pointed out that the demand pattern of the machinery industry is shifting from incremental to inventory-led, and the proportion of new construction and renovation projects is changing. The structural contradiction between insufficient traditional demand and insatiable emerging demand is becoming increasingly prominent, and its superimposed effect will further aggravate demand. Insufficient difficulties: R&D work and market development are facing challenges in adapting to market changes.
“With the increase in the international market share of my country’s machinery products, developed countries’ trade protectionism restricting my country’s entry has become increasingly strong. It weakens rapidly, and it is not advisable to be too optimistic about export growth." Cai Weici said.